GDP Data: The country’s economic growth was 7.8 percent in the first quarter of the current financial year. It was 13.1 percent in the same quarter a year ago. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has also shared on her official account of social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
GDP Data: Chief Economic Advisor (CAE) V Ananth Nageswaran has rejected the criticism regarding statistical discrepancy in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the April-June quarter, saying that when the same statistical authority released the data for the first quarter of 2020 When the most serious contraction was reported in 2015, opponents described it as credible because it was consistent with their intentions.
According to recently released data, the country’s economic growth stood at 7.8 percent in the first quarter of the current financial year. It was 13.1 percent in the same quarter a year ago.
Nageswara has said in an article that the discrepancy of 2.8 percent in the first quarter of the financial year 2023-24 is a ‘plus’ sign. This indicates that the expenditure side has given only 97.2 percent details of the income side. This does not mean that the 2.8 percent, details of which were not given, does not exist.
There is no manipulation in the data
Rajeev Mishra, co-author of this article and senior government economist, said that this data exists and can be interpreted in the coming quarters. Similarly, negative anomalies have been observed in the last eight quarters. This means that the expenditure side has been overinterpreted and needs to be reconciled.
CAGR 5.3 percent annually
According to the article, in the long run the negative and positive aspects balance each other. Between Q1 FY 2011-12 and Q1 FY 2023-24, the CAGR of real GDP (quarter-on-quarter) between income and expenditure was 5.3 per cent per annum.
“When statistical authorities reported a GDP contraction of around 25% in the first quarter of 2020-21…it had reported one of the severest contractions in the history of Indian GDP data. That data suited naysayers…hence it was ‘credible.’ “ CEA rebuts. https://t.co/pOnTEh1Wiq
— Nirmala Sitharaman (@nsitharaman) September 8, 2023
GDP was not inflated
According to the article, in such a situation it is not correct to say that the GDP has been exaggerated. The approach from the income side has always not been greater than that from the expenditure side.
The discrepancies were fairly distributed between 6.4 per cent and (-) 4.8 per cent during 2011-12. The discrepancy of the latest quarter lies therein itself. It is easy to verify this.
Finance Minister shared on Twitter
These comments of the Chief Economic Advisor (CAE) have also been shared by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on her official account of social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
Expressed concern about GDP growth rate
This article has been written in the context of the debate on India’s economic performance. Princeton University professor and economist Ashok Modi had expressed concern about the country’s GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the financial year 2023-24.
Economic growth rate will be 6.5 percent
He argues in his article that the National Statistical Office (NSO) is using selective data which, when examined more comprehensively, shows the GDP growth rate to be much lower than the 7.8 per cent announced by the government last month.
He said that in reality growth is low, inequalities are increasing and lack of jobs remains a serious problem. Earlier, Nageswaran had said last week that despite less monsoon rains, the economic growth rate in the current financial year will be 6.5 percent.
